john | 30 April, 2008 06:36
john | 31 March, 2008 18:42
john | 29 March, 2008 16:08
RISMEDIA, March 27, 2008–Whether it’s politics, the economy, international affairs or our personal daily activities, “change” is the operative word.
In real estate, many of the norms and rules that we have operated under have fundamentally changed. In our previous articles, we discussed how our principle financial institutions affecting real estate, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are tightening their guidelines on credit scores, appraisals and loan-to-value on properties in markets that they have identified as high risk. Their obvious goal is to minimize exposure to further losses.
My purpose for mentioning this is that many real estate markets are in a prolonged down cycle and we need to make sure that our sales approach with prospective clients take all these issues into account. It is a new world order for many real estate professionals and educating or qualifying buyers and sellers has renewed importance.
Helping Sellers See the Reality of the Market
In many locations throughout the U.S., home values have declined and have not stabilized. Sellers need to have a realistic expectation of the value of their home.
The first issue to be addressed is how much equity they have in their home. Their equity may be the determining factor to their ability to sell their home. This is where the appraisal becomes important to the process. There is incredible pressure coming from both the Federal and State governments to ensure the independence of the appraisal process. The cumulative effect of this pressure will be to reduce the appraised value of many properties in “high risk” markets.
When developing your Comparative Market Analysis, be certain to follow the minimum requirements that have been implemented by Fannie Mae. We outlined these guidelines in our first article, “The Importance of the Appraisal in a Declining Market.”
Finally, when writing the sales contract, you need to consider writing a 60 or 90 contract expiration date into the agreement. In today’s market, you need to assume that Murphy’s Law will come into play. In addition to the guidelines that can extend the time to gain loan approval, Lenders have reduced staffing in their underwriting departments adding time to the approval process. This extended time in the sales contract is equally important to the buyer.
Guiding Buyers in the Process
Buyers, also, need to understand the changes to the home buying process. While many potential buyers are waiting for the real estate market to bottom out before purchasing a home, they need to understand that the guidelines being instituted may result in many loan programs that they may qualify for today, may not be available tomorrow.
Qualifying the borrower should be done early in the process. We are not referring to the “pre qualification” letter of the past based on buyer supplied information. Client information needs to be validated. Ascertaining the buyer’s credit score(s), determining their income, assets and employment, are critical to determining what price home they can qualify for as well as what loan programs.
In spite of the various restrictions or limitations to loan programs that we have discussed, there are exceptions to the guidelines that may open up other loan opportunities to consider.
Veteran Loans (VA)
Individuals who have served or are active in the military (including National Guard) are not subject to these credit score or other guidelines. A VA loan is a 100% financing program with attractive interest rates and the opportunity for the buyer to pay little or no closing costs.
Federal Housing Administration Loans (FHA)
Each day, we read more pronouncements from our Federal Banking regulators and Congress recommending an increase in the role of FHA to underwrite loans that Fannie and Freddie cannot. Principle benefits of an FHA loan are the flexible underwriting guidelines and availability to those borrowers with less than a 620 credit score.
Portfolio Loan Products
These are mortgage loan programs offered by a bank or private investor. Since there are no rules or encumbrances governing the Lender, each loan is evaluated on its own merits. These unique loans would be funded by the bank / investor and not sold to Fannie or Freddie.
With each of these options, you need to discuss which may apply to your client. Let your Mortgage professional research what option best suits their needs.
Our intent in identifying these issues and options was not to be all inclusive or suggest that other options might not be available. The rules are changing daily. Interest rates and loan programs often change numerous times during the day.
The fact is that the home buying process has gotten considerably more complex with a declining number of financing options available from a decreasing number of lenders.
As a real estate professional, you need a team of experts, from yourself to a mortgage professional to an appraiser, to properly support your sales efforts.
john | 28 March, 2008 21:28
john | 14 March, 2008 15:08
March 6 2008 News Release from NAR
The volume of existing-home sales is expected to hold steady through late spring, with a gradual recovery during the second half of the year as the mortgage situation improves in high-cost areas, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said many buyers have been waiting for higher mortgage loan limits. “The higher loan limits for both FHA and conventional loans will increase consumer choice and provide greater access to lower interest rate mortgages in high-cost regions,” he said. “Therefore, a notable rise in home sales can be anticipated in the second half of the year."The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in January, held at a stable level of 85.9, unchanged from December, but was 19.6 percent below the January 2007 reading of 106.8. “This additional sign of a stabilizing market is encouraging, and our members are telling us there’s been a pickup in shopping activity.” Yun said. “Our hope is that the increased traffic of buyers looking at homes will translate soon into more contract offers.”The PHSI in the West jumped 13.0 percent in January to 93.8 but remains 12.7 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index rose 0.6 percent to 85.2 but is 13.3 percent lower than January 2007. The index in the Northeast declined 4.1 percent in January to 69.6 and is 28.0 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index fell 6.1 percent in January to 89.5 and is 23.8 percent below January 2007.Existing-home sales are forecast to remain flat around an annual level of 4.9 million in the first half of the year before improving to a 5.8-million pace in the second half. With a weak first half, total sales for 2008 are projected at 5.38 million, but are then seen to rise 3.5 percent to 5.60 million in 2009. The aggregate existing-home price is projected to decline 1.2 percent to a median of $216,300 this year, and then increase 3.5 percent to $223,800 in 2009. A pattern of disparate price performance continues around the country with a roughly even split between up and down markets. Recently released data for the fourth quarter shows strong price gains in markets such as the Kennewick-Richland-Pasco area of Washington; Topeka, Kan.; and Atlantic City, N.J. At the same time, many areas that have lost jobs are showing price declines.“Significant price declines in some local markets have sharply and quickly improved local affordability conditions, and are inducing buyers to return to the marketplace,” Yun said. NAR’s housing affordability index is forecast to rise 14 percentage points to 127.0 in 2008.New-home sales should decline 23.7 percent to 590,000 this year before rising 7.2 percent to 633,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably fall 25.1 percent to 1.01 million this year, and then continue to slip another 2.7 percent to 987,000 in 2009. “As builders sharply cut back production, vacant new-home inventory has consistently declined over the past year-and-a-half,” Yun said. “That will permit a quicker return to balanced market conditions in many local areas.” The median new-home price is likely to fall 6.1 percent to $232,200 this year, and then rise 5.1 percent in 2009.The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which has moved erratically in recent weeks, is expected to hover around 5.8 percent most of the year, and then rise to an average of 6.3 percent in 2009.Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.4 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, will probably be 3.2 percent this year and 1.5 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is expected to grow 1.4 percent in 2008 and 3.1 percent next year.The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.# # #(1) The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.Existing-home sales for February will be released March 24; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released April 8.
john | 06 March, 2008 19:10
A portion of the article indicating some reporters are seeing things in a new light. Long ago I found when the media said the bottom was in on the stock markets they were already up 10% - 20%. Could it be the same will be found by those waiting for the media to tell them the bottom is in the housing market?
Some members of the financial press are beginning to suggest that a bottom is near, and that buyers should get out and start looking for bargains in homes.
Time Magazine ran a piece this week titled, "Ignore the Headlines!" by Dan Kadlec, where he notes that Fed rate cuts always "lift the economy eventually." He also makes the case that buying a home today will beat waiting another year even if home prices drop an additional 10 percent.
To buy a $218,900 home at 5.5 percent is $994.31 a month. To buy next year at $197,010 at 6 percent will cost $994.94.
The irony is that in the time Kadlec did his research and when the magazine came out, interest rates were already back over 6 percent, making his example all the more compelling.
The Motley Fool's Marko Djuranovic wrote on February 25th, 2008 that "the shape of the U.S. housing market is not nearly as bad as some analysts would have you believe." In his spirited defense of home prices as being far from overvalued, he points out that home sizes have increased 47 percent from 1973 (1,525 to 2,248 square feet), and that today's homes feature sturdier construction materials, more expensive siding, outdoor amenities, more complex wiring, sophisticated heating and cooling systems, and larger kitchens.
"And the moment that the supply of existing homes begins to shrink, potential first-time home buyers will wake up to the fact that between low interest rates and homes that sell at (or below) replacement cost, they can grab the deal of a lifetime," says Djuranovic.
As Kadlec points out, you just never know, but you may not save anything to wait, and you've "spent a year living someplace you'd rather not be."
john | 05 March, 2008 21:27
john | 04 February, 2008 19:56
Super Bowl Results Stock & Housing Mkts
The equity markets have had an uncanny direct correlation to the housing market or visa versa for the past 11-plus years. They are tied at the hip. Whoever wins the Super Bowl, meaning which conference and which team, we can look at past Super Bowls and see how the market has performed over the ensuing year to determine which way the wind is blowing.Going all the way back to 1967 and measuring return, it has been more advantageous when the NFC wins. The S&P 500 has been positive more often than negative (86 percent versus 63 percent of the time) with above-average market performance in the Super Bowl year (NFC wins, +16.4 percent vs. AFC wins, +7.1 percent). Since the Giants won, we have a good thing going.
Now from a team perspective, when the Giants have won, the results have been more favorable than when the Patriots have won. In the Giants' two previous wins (1987 and 1991), the S&P rallied 17.8 percent on average. Although, when the Patriots won (2002, 2004 and 2005) the market was -2.1 percent on average.
More impressive is when the Patriots lost the Super Bowl in 1986, and in 1997 the markets rallied 25.8 percent on average. Now we are talking. It is a good thing the Patriots lost last night because the last time we had a team go undefeated (the Miami Dolphins in the 1973 Super Bowl) it preceded the 1973-74 economic recession where the S&P 500 dropped 14.5 percent.
Finally, the two times that the Giants won the Super Bowl economic conditions were similar to our current situation. The 1987 win preceded the October stock market crash, and the 1991 victory was during the last major housing recession. The good news is that in both cases the markets moved higher (1987, +5.1 percent; 1991, +30.6 percent).*
Thank you Eli Manning and the N.Y. Giants' defense team. Your win is the best news we have had since last summer.
Ok-- you decide!
john | 12 January, 2008 17:16
john | 12 January, 2008 17:14
john | 28 December, 2007 22:02
john | 28 December, 2007 21:58
2007 is now history and buyers are still smiling. Realistic sellers have sold at a less than in the recent past.
Home sales are fell close to 20 percent compared to 2006, still the 5th best year ever. Which forecasters do believe for 2008? The ones that say the sellers market is returning soon or the others that say it will be 2009? Inventories are up which is in the buyers favor. Some help will be available to help some in trouble keep their home which should hold down a greater rise of inventory. Buyers now have time to compare homes without much concern of multiple offers bidding the price above the asking price. Although some markets are expected to get worse for a while, markets are all dependent on locality. As 10,000 – 15,000 baby boomers retire each month the market in the Carolinas, especially beach area market, may not get worse. Investors have been slowly coming back since August. Serious investors generally are on the right track. They were the 1st to leave and coming back is a good sign. If you're planning to buy a home or investment property soon it is never to early to be prepared. Pay off or pay down all debt, especially credit cards. Credit cards do not need to be paid off but bringing the balance down, especially if you are over 30% of your limit helps. Even if you pay off your cards it is best not to close them all out. The longer you hold a card, balance or not the better your history. Making all payments on time is a great help. Check your credit history and begin to clean up any errors you find. You can receive a free credit report once a year from all 3 reporting agencies at http://www.annualcreditreport.com/. You can also receive your credit or FICO score for about ten dollars. You should consider hiring a Realtor to help you through the entire process. You will not incur additional costs and may even save money and time too. Not all real estate agents are Realtors, but all Realtors are agents. Also, if looking along the Grand Strand and Brunswick County consider a broker licensed in both states even if your mind is made up. They will not try to change your mind but can often offer more insight to the market. You may even have a preferred neighborhood or two, ask your Realtor about all neighborhoods you are considering. If you do not have a buyer agent working for you the agent is working for the seller. One older study showed that buyers using buyer agents or exclusive buyer's agents paid less for their home than those who used traditional agents. If you have friends or relatives in the area be sure to ask their opinion of neighborhoods too. You may have a preferred lender if taking out a mortgage. It may pay to shop anyway and your Realtor will have a few suggestions. Although your Realtor is able to explain how lenders figure the amount of a mortgage a lender will most likely approve it is preferred you talk to a lender before getting too far into the process. A “pre-approval” letter from a lender is preferred over a ‘pre-qualified’ letter. A pre-approval letter submitted with an offer shows you are a serious buyer. Knowing the amount you are pre-approved will eliminate disappointment from looking at homes beyond what you and/or the lenders are comfortable with.If you do not have a closing lawyer, your Realtor will provide you with three or more to choose from. Call them all and ask questions. You need to know their pricing schedule and if their case load is current. You will have legal documents to sign. Your Realtor may be able to answer some questions but he is NOT a lawyer. Make sure you read and understand all the documents presented to you. Understand everything, including the mortgage documents before you sign. Your lawyer is your best source. He and your Realtor work for you.
john | 21 November, 2007 21:16
Nick Kremydas, CEO
john | 20 November, 2007 18:25
The list of upgrades and positive items on this home are too numerous to mention here. Actually they are too numerous to mention on MLS listings too. Just minutes from the beach and all the Myrtle Beach area has to offer but not IN it! Why pay a POA of hundreds when you can pay only $20 per month? Check this out then call or drop me a note; http://rakoci.com/listman/listings/l0007.html
john | 20 November, 2007 18:12
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